How Trump Could Win, and Why He may not

Despite controversy after controversy, Trump still dominates all pulls With his seemingly impervious lead, it is tempting to declare that he is a clear front-runner for the nominees

He has, after all, defied all expectations of his impending demise. If he has survived everything so far, why should he lose now?

Mr. Trump has emerged as a true factional candidate - much more like Howard Dean or Pat Buchanan than Herman Cain, or other candidates who have surged to the top of the polls only to colapse.

But it’s still too soon to say Mr. Trump is the front-runner for the nomination. He has a high floor but a low ceiling, and although he has weathered many controversies, the toughest days are yet to come.

The polls already show initial signs of those challenges, like Ted Cruz’s lead in Iowa; the number of Republicans who say they would not support him; his weakness in polls of verified voters; and his smaller or nonexistent leads in one-on-one matchups against likely rivals.

His chances of winning -which are real, even if not good — depend much more on the weaknesses of his opponents than his own strengths. The good news for Mr. Trump is that the opposition is flawed enough to entertain such an outcome.

The notion that Mr. Trump should be considered a strong front-runner based on current polls is understandable, but inconsistent with recent history. In nearly every election cycle, there are candidates who lead national polls and sometimes even win states, but don’t come close to winning the nomination.