Hillary
Clinton isn't just looking for a win -- she's seeking her first
breakout victory over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in Saturday's South
Carolina Democratic primary.
In
the last contest before Super Tuesday, the former secretary of state
will rely on her advantage with African-American voters. Sanders,
meanwhile, will look to prove he's closed the gap among minority voters,
setting himself on course to stay close in the last of the early-state
contests.
WHAT TO WATCH OUT FOR:
Clinton is widely expected to win -- and potentially win big -- in the Palmetto State.
Her
margin of victory, though, is the crucial number to watch in order to
forecast what lies ahead on Super Tuesday, when 11 states vote --
turning what had been a state-by-state slog into a truly national
contest.
Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia,
Tennessee, Texas and Virginia are all Southern states with large
portions of African-American voters, just like South Carolina. That
makes South Carolina a critical test of Clinton's strength in those
places.
Sanders is focusing his
efforts on five Super Tuesday states where he stands a better chance of
winning: Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma and Vermont.
If
she wins in a blowout, Clinton can expect a big Super Tuesday. If she
just ekes out a win, that would be more troubling for her campaign.
In 2008, about double the number of black voters participated in South Carolina's Democratic primary compared to 2004.
It was a huge component of then-Sen. Barack Obama's runaway victory.
And if Clinton is to blow out Sanders on Saturday, she'll need a large turnout among African-Americans as well.
At
the heart of Clinton's strategy to sew up the Democratic nomination is
the notion that minority voters are a firewall of sorts that will
prevent Sanders from accumulating the delegates he'd need to stop her.
Not every Democratic electorate, though, is as white as New Hampshire or as black as South Carolina.
Clinton
doesn't just need clear wins among minority voters; she needs them to
turn out in force. And South Carolina will be the first test of whether
her campaign has energized black voters enough that they will do just
that.
In
2008, it was ugly: The man once called the "first black president"
alienated African-American voters in South Carolina after a series of
outbursts against the Illinois senator who was set to become the actual
first black president.
Particularly
damaging was Clinton's comparison of Obama to Jesse Jackson, who'd won
South Carolina's Democratic primary in 1984 and 1988. African-American
leaders interpreted that as dismissive of the importance of the black
vote.
Obama defeated Clinton by 29
points, a blowout that helped put him on the path to the Democratic
nomination. Since then, the Clinton have repaired their relationships
with the African-American community.
The
best evidence that Bill Clinton's damaging 2008 outbursts are healed
comes from Rep. Jim Clyburn of South Carolina, the top-ranking
African-American in Congress.
Clyburn
wrote in his memoir that in 2008, Bill Clinton had phoned him at 2:15
a.m., calling him a "bastard" and blaming Clyburn for his wife's defeat
there.
This year, Clyburn has endorsed Hillary Clinton.
A
strong Clinton win would signal that Bill Clinton -- who has campaigned
in South Carolina for his wife this year -- has recovered from his past
political wounds.
Sanders' effort to reach out to African-American voters has been, at times, discordant.
Recently,
he lashed out at Clinton in a BET interview, accusing her of cozying up
to Obama in an attempt to pander to black voters.
Then,
in a CNN town hall, he portrayed himself as a major Obama ally, hitting
Donald Trump's four-year-old quest for Obama's birth certificate as
racially motivated.
Sanders is
particularly strong among young voters, white voters and men. But to
secure the Democratic nomination, he'll need to win over minority
voters, too.
The South Carolina results
will provide evidence of whether he is succeeding. His election-night
speech -- and then his appearances on Sunday morning news shows the next
day -- will reveal whether he has settled on the best strategy to
achieve that goal.
Clinton's
win in Nevada gave her just a few more delegates than Sanders -- but
that pales in comparison to the importance of the symbolic momentum it
gave her campaign.
Going into the state, Sanders was riding a near-tie in Iowa and a blowout win in New Hampshire.
Leaving
it, he faced with many of the same obstacles that have confronted him
for months, just as the campaign calendar turned to terrain more
friendly to Clinton.
South Carolina will settle a few more delegates, but it will also be an important moment for supporters of both candidates.
Just by keeping the state close, Sanders could reverse the damage of Nevada.
And
keeping it close is exactly what he'll try to do throughout the first
15 days of March. After Super Tuesday, he could pick up a few small
states, but it's six big ones -- Michigan on March 8 and then Florida,
Ohio, Illinois, North Carolina and Missouri on March 15 -- that Clinton
will be eyeing.
If Sanders can set
himself on a path to wake up the morning of March 16 still within
striking distance, it'll be a major success, just as the campaign heads
west to states he's more likely to win.
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